Dems Sell Gun Control as Reducing Crime, Promoting Safety, but Data Shows it Just Ain’t So

While the Democrats’ package came partially in response to last year’s mass shooting at Club Q in Colorado Springs, researchers agree that it is difficult to measure policies’ effectiveness in reducing mass shootings. While highly visible, mass shootings are statistically rare, and policy solutions aimed at preventing them largely rely on anecdotal evidence or speculation on how a previous event could have been prevented.

“As you get to these really emotionally charged incidents and people are really groping for solutions, it’s hard to hear that the evidence is inconclusive,” said Rosanna Smart, the co-director of the RAND Corporation’s Gun Policy in America Initiative, which studies various firearm policies. “It may be that there is a lot of uncertainty about whether policies may be effective in preventing mass shootings specifically, but that doesn’t mean we should stop trying.”

“No strong evidence of effect is not the same as evidence of no effect,” Smart added. “Just because current evidence is inconclusive doesn’t mean that policies are ineffective and that you shouldn’t try them. Small changes in gun deaths are massive from a social cost perspective.”

Most of the research conducted on gun-control policies has focused on whether they reduce firearm-related suicides and homicides. Experts generally agree that there is low to moderate evidence that policies like waiting periods and minimum age purchasing requirements reduce mortality from gun violence, especially suicides. …

Mark Gius, an economics professor at Quinnipiac University who has studied minimum age laws, said that the policy’s effectiveness in reducing homicides and overall crime levels has not been the focus of robust research, which has instead been assessed for its potential to reduce youth suicide.

“The effect on overall crime may be minimal. For suicides, there may be a good effect,” he said. “Typically, a lot of suicides aren’t planned in advance. They are spur of the moment things. So if someone tries to go buy a gun and they are prevented because of an age restriction, it may help with that.”

At the same time, however, Gius noted that many young people between 18 and 21 years old who want to buy a gun probably grew up around firearm culture and might already have access to a gun without purchasing it themselves.

“I think the effects (on suicide) would be minimal, to be honest,” he said.

— Sara Wilson in Colorado Democrats Say Gun Bills Will Reduce Violence. Here’s What Experts Say.